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Market analysis, modeling, and forecasting
Energy price forecasting
At one time, static 20-year forecasts of energy prices were standard practice in developing system expansion plans, evaluating power supply alternatives, and supporting generation investment. Today, price drivers are increasingly uncertain, and a useful forecast has to explicitly deal with uncertainties. Bates White has sophisticated tools to develop energy price forecasts—and the associated decision processes—so that uncertainty is accounted for and valued appropriately. We have developed electricity dispatch, transmission, and capacity expansion models, as well as network models for natural gas, oil, and oil products. For the electric industry we use both traditional production-simulation models (when detailed analysis at the nodal level is required) and dynamic programming models to identify and evaluate key uncertainties and optimal capacity expansion investments. Our natural gas network model allows the forecasting of prices and basis differentials between different supply pooling points in the United States, Canada and Mexico, providing both deterministic and probabilistic estimates.
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