Collin Cain, MSc

Collin Cain specializes in power market analysis, with applications in supply contract and asset valuation, and in forensic analysis in litigation support. He has extensive experience developing energy market pricing and risk analysis models. He has applied these models in a variety of consulting assignments to value generation assets and power supply contracts and to develop supply hedging strategies. Mr. Cain also applies his expertise in forensic analysis of the conduct and application of forecasts, market evaluation, and risk assessment by contract counterparties. Mr. Cain assists clients in developing regulatory strategies, and has provided expert testimony in both regulatory and private legal proceedings. He has undertaken strategic advisory work on issues such as asset divestment, stranded cost recovery, and rate unbundling. Mr. Cain’s expertise includes market design, regulatory analysis, and auction development and implementation.

Selected Experience

• Submitted testimony on behalf of Constellation Energy Commodities Group, Inc. in a complaint proceeding before FERC (Docket No. EL07-47-000) regarding the Illinois electricity supply auction. Analyzed the conduct, bidding behavior and outcome of the auction, addressing auction structure and rules, and allegations of market manipulation.

• Served as testifying expert on market modeling before the Massachusetts Department of Telecommunications and Energy on behalf of Commonwealth Electric. Testimony supported analysis of Commonwealth Electric’s stranded costs and buyout options for legacy power purchase agreements.

• Served as testifying expert and produced expert report for Oglethorpe Power Corporation (OPC) in litigation proceedings between OPC and LG&E Power Marketing (LG&E) regarding LG&E’s economic analyses prior to entering into a long-term power purchase and sale agreement.

• Developed RFP documents and evaluation procedures for the Ontario Ministry of Energy’s 2500MW RFP. Directed the economic evaluation of generator proposals, including the development of models used to estimate energy market revenues and contingent capacity support payments, and created analytical tools to evaluate aggregate costs, including transmission upgrade cost impacts, for every possible portfolio of submitted bids.

• Conducted valuations of all Central Maine Power (CMP) power plants, supporting negotiated sale of generation assets to FPL. Applied market price forecasts and extensive Monte Carlo analyses to examine multiple transaction scenarios, including the value of retaining hydroelectric facilities as a supply hedge during the transition to competition. FPL Energy agreed to pay $845 million for all of CMP’s non-nuclear generating assets.

• Directed power market projections and economic benefit analyses in various applications including: study of economic benefits for the Niagara Power Project (NYPA); cost-benefit analysis of environmental protection alternatives related to fueling of Salem Generation Station (PSE&G) and Indian Point Nuclear Power Plant (Entergy); and to the operation of Danskammer Point Generating Station (Dynegy).

• Quantified effects on New Jersey energy costs of the prospective merger between PSEG and Exelon Corp as part of a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis for the NJ BPU. Effects included wholesale price impacts from changes to nuclear plant availability, direct costs to the state arising from planned staff reductions, and reductions in PSE&G’s regulated cost of service arising from estimated merger synergies.