|
Dr. Charles Bates speaks at Mealey’s Asbestos Bankruptcy
Conference
WASHINGTON, D.C., June 30, 2006—Dr. Charles Bates, President and Senior Partner
of Bates White, LLC, spoke at Mealey’s Asbestos Bankruptcy Conference on Friday,
June 9 in Chicago, Ill. Dr. Bates’ presentation was part of a panel
discussion “Estimating Present and Future Liability,” and it focused
on the importance of detail in the preparation of asbestos liability estimates.
Dr. Bates focused on future claim filing forecasts and demonstrated the
importance of detail in two, key issue areas. First, he discussed a modified version
of the Nicholson Methodology. The modifications to this methodology incorporate new
data gathered over the last two decades and address problems that Dr. Nicholson himself
acknowledged with respect to the exposed population he used as a basis for his study.
Dr. Bates highlighted the importance of the modified version of the Nicholson
Methodology to today’s defendants, who often have narrowly defined asbestos
liabilities in terms of the number of sources or scope of exposure. Dr. Bates
showed how companies with mesothelioma claims arising from different occupational
sources could have very different claims forecasts.
Dr. Bates also discussed non-malignant claims forecasts. He showed that the
use of a “non-malignant multiplier” forecast is unreliable and that
accurate, non-malignant claims forecasts must account for the economic factors
that drive non-malignant claim recruitment.
Finally Dr. Bates provided his expert opinion in response to another
panelist’s comments on the FAIR Act legislation that was recently
reintroduced in the Senate. Dr. Bates reaffirmed that the new version of the
trust fund is not financially viable given the eligibility criteria, pointing
out that the same fundamental problems persist that were analyzed and presented
in Bates White’s original Senate testimony.
He substantiated this point by
highlighting the recent testimony of the former Director of the Congressional
Budget Office (CBO) Douglas Holtz-Eagen who managed the CBO’s analysis of the
FAIR Act. The former CBO Director distanced himself from CBO’s analysis
stating that the CBO study was conducted under “implausbile” constraints,
the data used were inaccurate, and the trust fund is not financially viable in the
long term.
The two-day conference (June 8—9 included discussions of federal and state
legislation, major cases and settlements, and the use of Section 524(g) to
resolve asbestos liability.
The two-day conference included discussions on the impact of Fuller-Austin on
future bankruptcies, cost effective ways to improve claims management, preparing
for the expanded theory of liability and new defendants in asbestos litigation, and
the role of insurance coverage in asbestos cases.
About Bates White
Bates White is a national economic consulting firm of more than 150 professionals.
Established in 1999, Bates White offers consulting services in economics,
finance,
and business analytics. Bates White has offices in Washington, D.C., and San
Diego, Calif.
www.bateswhite.com
|
